Who’s Best for Israel? Clinton or Trump?

To put a twist on a Woody Allen quip, “Eighty percent of life is showing up; it’s what you do with the other 50 percent that matters.” In a presidential campaign more akin to a Lewis Carroll hallucination than the selection of a dangerous world’s most influential leader, that seems to make sense.

Viewed through the lens of the Jewish people, a vastly important inquiry comes to the fore: If a presidential candidate says good things about the Jewish state, does it really mean good things for Jerusalem? In traditional Jewish fashion, there is both good and bad news on that front. Despite what some might prognosticate, there are pros and cons to each candidate on the Israel front.

For starters, don’t hold your breath for a U.S.-backed jump-start of the Mideast peace process from either candidate. When it comes to this campaign, to coin a phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Only someone who enjoys self-performed brain surgery would make wading into the toxic waters of the Israel-Palestinian peace process a priority. Every U.S. administration since the first Nixon one has announced a “serious and sustained” effort at Arab-Israeli and/or “Israel-Palestinian” peace. While there have been important gains, the frustrations, violence and need for sustained focus make the task beyond the grasp of most politicians.

Sure, Donald Trump is the most bizarre political figure on the national scene since 2008 when candidate Cynthia McKinney declared the feds executed 5,000 males and dumped them in a Louisiana swamp. But give Trump credit. He did win the GOP nomination, and despite gaffes and missteps, the possibility remains he will be the next one putting up his feet on the Oval Office’s Resolute desk.

In sentiment and words, Trump says he has Israel’s back. But what will a President Trump do? He will continue saying good things. He is likely to personally address the influential AIPAC annual policy conference in late March. He will schedule a trip to Israel.

Lucky Trump, he’s off the hook on funding Israeli requests; President Obama just signed a 10-year, $38 billion military aid package to Israel. Mind you, Trump will say the wrong thing on multiple occasions. Abroad, it will make American foreign policy incredibly difficult.

As for Camp Clinton, many of its leaders – particularly its founder — have vast and varied experiences in the Middle East. Hillary Clinton has no great love for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, but she respects him as Israel’s democratically elected leader. Frankly, she knows she won’t get anywhere with him. So she will be hands off, appointing someone to be her “Peace Process Czar.” A key question: Will Bill Clinton be given the role, trying to secure his legacy by wrapping up the painfully incomplete Oslo Process? Or will Hillary Clinton persuade someone such as Dennis Ross to attempt to finish the job?

Ultimately, the real test of a new administration’s relationship with Israel will come amidst the first crisis in the Middle East — and there will be one. The potential scenarios are familiar and already have contingency plans both in Washington and Jerusalem: Endless (and perhaps simultaneous) rounds of missiles from Gaza and Hezbollah, Jordan’s hostile takeover, Syria and Lebanon as ISIS bases, mass water poisoning, dirty bombs and more. It’s a sickening list, but one that cannot be ignored.

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Neil Rubin, Ph.D., teaches Jewish history at Beth Tfiloh Dahan Community High School and Israeli history at the Baltimore Hebrew Institute of Towson University.

 

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