The Jewish vote in the upcoming presidential election should be quite similar to the way it has been split since 2012, according to a new study by the Washington, D.C.-based Pew Research Center.
The survey, conducted earlier this month and published on Oct. 13, found that 70 percent of American Jewry plans to vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while 27 percent plan to vote for President Donald Trump.
If those numbers bear out, they will be nearly identical to the Jewish result in 2016, when Pew found that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won 71 percent of the Jewish vote compared to Trump’s 25 percent. In 2012, the numbers were slightly higher for the Republican candidate: former President Barack Obama won 69 percent of the Jewish vote while GOP nominee Mitt Romney won 30 percent
The margin of error for Jewish respondents on the Pew survey is quite large, at 9.6 percent, which means that the result is statistically similar to the Jewish vote in previous presidential elections.
The poll is a blow to Jewish Republican hopes that Trump’s record in office — including recognizing Israeli territorial claims, brokering peace between Israel and two Arab states, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, and pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement — could shift the vote in his favor.
The Pew poll also found that 35 percent of Jewish Americans approve of the job Trump has done in office, similar to his 38 percent approval rating among Americans overall.
Overall, Pew found that 52 percent of Americans overall prefer Biden while 42 percent prefer Trump. Large majorities of Jews, Hispanic Catholics, Black Protestants and religiously unaffiliated voters support Biden. Most white Christians, including the vast majority of white evangelicals, support Trump.
Ben Sales writes for the JTA global Jewish news source.